Jan28 Sunset Bay forecast

Normally, 4' on 12s and light winds would be an absolute 'go day' for me out of Sunset Bay. However, there's a very interesting strong secondary swell that keeps showing up on MSW.  Maybe some residual volcano energy bouncing around the Pacific?     

FYI- this 15s/16s secondary swell, coming up quick and then gone is there on MSW for the Coos, Flo, and Depot forecasts.

It sure looks like the primary and secondary swells get "organized" by Saturday.  It wouldn't be much fun to have the wind come up and have that superposition of swell happen at the same time -- 7ft with a wind wave would be treacherous for me if I was in my kayak.  I like more of a calm window with a longer duration.

Normally, 4' on 12s and light winds would be an absolute 'go day' for me out of Sunset Bay. However, there's a very interesting strong secondary swell that keeps showing up on MSW.  Maybe some residual volcano energy bouncing around the Pacific?     

FYI- this 15s/16s secondary swell, coming up quick and then gone is there on MSW for the Coos, Flo, and Depot forecasts.

Hi Roger, although I am a scientist, I am no Oceanographer, so take this with a grain of salt (sort of pun intended ). Although the atmospheric and oceanic waves and reverberations, ripples and such of massive short-term local events (such as volcano eruptions, underwater earthquakes and related tsunamis) can last for several hours and indeed several days depending on location and magnitude of event (among many other factors such as local bathymetry), the energy dissipates relatively quickly as they travel and bounce back sometimes several times around the world. Assuming you are referring to waves forecasted for January 28/29 and the potential for being originated from residual energy from the underwater volcano eruption in Tonga my guess is that they are not related. As an example, check out the following publication which looked at the tsunami energy dissipation from the 2011 Japan tsunami.

https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2011JC007635#

One of the tide stations they looked at is actually located near Crescent City, not far from Sunset Bay. In that study they showed that after 6 days of the tsunami, energy signals were too weak to be distinguished from noise caused by tidal and other processes.

That Tonga eruption and related tsunami was on Saturday January 15, which puts the event a full two weeks before the forecasted waves. My guess is that the primary and secondary swell that you notice are expected by Fri-Sat are related to other processes and not the Tonga volcano eruption and tsunami. Hope you find a window of time to go out at some point soon, I like your reports!
Cheers

I agree with both of you and should have included an 'lol' after my volcano comment. 

if I consider the swells as a manifestation of energy in the ocean, the forecast is showing a surge in energy about noon as that new swell builds quickly over the next few hours and then, as Barb points out, it looks to merge by the end of Friday with the existing primary to give us a 5.5' on 12s Saturday, I'm looking at that as a decent razor clam evening. 

I'm still pondering the 8am to noon window on Friday, 4 hours out fishing in 4' on 12s and calm wind in late January is very tempting...

forecast improved, that secondary swell is weaker and delayed.  I'm launching at 9:30am and heading for Simpson Reef, rare smooth day this early in the year.

Happy for you that the weather window is looking better, hope it works out and look forward for a report! Just be carefull with those volcano-induced ripples ( )

I am keeping an eye on Saturday for Depoe Bay. Can't fish Friday, probably just wishful thinking......

forecast improved, that secondary swell is weaker and delayed.  I'm launching at 8am and heading for Simpson Reef, rare smooth day this early in the year.

How was it out there? I just booked Bastendorff campsite for Thurs-Fri, planning to get out on the water out of Sunset Bay. I haven't peddled all the way out to Simpson reef yet since I've been out there solo, stick to areas just outside the bay. Forecast looks good though!

forecast improved, that secondary swell is weaker and delayed.  I'm launching at 9:30am and heading for Simpson Reef, rare smooth day this early in the year.

How was it out there? I just booked Bastendorff campsite for Thurs-Fri, planning to get out on the water out of Sunset Bay. I haven't peddled all the way out to Simpson reef yet since I've been out there solo, stick to areas just outside the bay. Forecast looks good though!

Friday is the day, 3 of us planning to head for Simpson about 9:30am, only question is how the lingcod bite will be, conditions look perfect. 

It was a beautiful day out with Roger and the guys!
A lil slow, but quite enjoyable none the less.
Picked up a lil greenling, which I sent back down on a bigger hook, and got my personal best ling.
32.25", but FAT. I didn't realize quite how fat till I got back to shore. Hoping the belly is full of food and not eggs/baby ling.
Caught quite a few blacks, but almost all were tiny, only kept one.
Released a smaller legal ling, and then kept a 28".
Five crabs in my one trap, two big males, three lil females.
Made some new friends, got some AOTY entries, I'd have to say it was a good day!

Nicely done!

successful day seems to be the general consensus, it definitely was for me.

West end of Simpson Reef


27" and 23" lings, kept the smaller one only due to a hook slicing it's belly. So I prepped it to cook whole and dump some sort of spicy Thai stir fry dish all over it. 
All 3 crab right at 6.1875", been hanging out in some commercial pots before they wandered into mine.  ¯\_(ツ)_/¯


we get so familiar working with fillets from ocean fish,
smaller lingcod very easy to clean whole and they don't have scales or a thick/tough skin.
more to come on this experiment.

Nice day! 2 Lings and a decent rock fish. Caught a Cabezon and let it go. I'm eating the rest. Great to meet y'all.

Great pics man!