rogerdodger:
Normally, 4' on 12s and light winds would be an absolute 'go day' for me out of Sunset Bay. However, there's a very interesting strong secondary swell that keeps showing up on MSW. Maybe some residual volcano energy bouncing around the Pacific?
FYI- this 15s/16s secondary swell, coming up quick and then gone is there on MSW for the Coos, Flo, and Depot forecasts.
bb2fish:
It sure looks like the primary and secondary swells get "organized" by Saturday. It wouldn't be much fun to have the wind come up and have that superposition of swell happen at the same time -- 7ft with a wind wave would be treacherous for me if I was in my kayak. I like more of a calm window with a longer duration.
skayaker2:
--- Quote from: rogerdodger on January 24, 2022, 07:45:01 AM ---Normally, 4' on 12s and light winds would be an absolute 'go day' for me out of Sunset Bay. However, there's a very interesting strong secondary swell that keeps showing up on MSW. Maybe some residual volcano energy bouncing around the Pacific?
FYI- this 15s/16s secondary swell, coming up quick and then gone is there on MSW for the Coos, Flo, and Depot forecasts.
--- End quote ---
Hi Roger, although I am a scientist, I am no Oceanographer, so take this with a grain of salt (sort of pun intended ::) ). Although the atmospheric and oceanic waves and reverberations, ripples and such of massive short-term local events (such as volcano eruptions, underwater earthquakes and related tsunamis) can last for several hours and indeed several days depending on location and magnitude of event (among many other factors such as local bathymetry), the energy dissipates relatively quickly as they travel and bounce back sometimes several times around the world. Assuming you are referring to waves forecasted for January 28/29 and the potential for being originated from residual energy from the underwater volcano eruption in Tonga my guess is that they are not related. As an example, check out the following publication which looked at the tsunami energy dissipation from the 2011 Japan tsunami.
One of the tide stations they looked at is actually located near Crescent City, not far from Sunset Bay. In that study they showed that after 6 days of the tsunami, energy signals were too weak to be distinguished from noise caused by tidal and other processes.
That Tonga eruption and related tsunami was on Saturday January 15, which puts the event a full two weeks before the forecasted waves. My guess is that the primary and secondary swell that you notice are expected by Fri-Sat are related to other processes and not the Tonga volcano eruption and tsunami. Hope you find a window of time to go out at some point soon, I like your reports! Cheers
rogerdodger:
I agree with both of you and should have included an 'lol' after my volcano comment.
if I consider the swells as a manifestation of energy in the ocean, the forecast is showing a surge in energy about noon as that new swell builds quickly over the next few hours and then, as Barb points out, it looks to merge by the end of Friday with the existing primary to give us a 5.5' on 12s Saturday, I'm looking at that as a decent razor clam evening. ;D
I'm still pondering the 8am to noon window on Friday, 4 hours out fishing in 4' on 12s and calm wind in late January is very tempting...
rogerdodger:
forecast improved, that secondary swell is weaker and delayed. I'm launching at 9:30am and heading for Simpson Reef, rare smooth day this early in the year.