Fishin-T:
Most of you saw where I opened a thread recently called "I'm a FOOL, please help". Well, a lot of the members DID help and they've made it pretty clear to me that it's the cold water that's the answer when I asked "what's a NWKA's biggest threat out there?" If you didn't read Kalitype's answer, then get the hell back over there and check it out. But I ALSO explained that I see safety kinda like risk management. You know... how much risk are we talking, really, vs how much insurance (or risk avoidance) should I have on me.
Now, number oriented engineer kind of guy that I am I crave some data to at least mull over. I can't imagine that I can find any hard numbers to answer my question, but I'm nearly certain that I can develope a pretty good gut feel for the situation with enough input from you guys (and gals), the NWKA membership. Enough to where I myself at least, can have a good enough feel of it to form what will have to pass (to me again) for hard data. Alright, so here's my big burning question this time and, whoops, yeah, it's another two parter:
1. "What are the odds that I might accidentally capsize my SOT in my lifetime if I continue to go out there about as much as the average NWKA member?"
2. "If I had such a capsize, what are the odds that my kayak might slip beyond my reach when it happens?"
Part of the setup here is that I'm not talking about times when I'm practicing my re-entries and I'm not talking about times where I'm playing in the surf. Those are examples of times when I KNOW it's gonna happen or at least times when I'm pretty sure it's gonna happen, and that's not what I crave to know about. I feel a need to formulate to myself (who knows why?) how likely is this accidental incident, really.
Feel free to shoot totally from the hip if you like, but anecdotal evidence carries a huge amount more weight. Of course we can probably only be talking about estimates here, that's all I'm looking for. Except that I said I don't see where you might find any numbers, but please by all means prove me wrong if you can do it. I promise you that I am absolutely serious here, and I'm hoping for answers from a LOT of you members. The "opinion" or estimation that I boil out of these anwers (one more time... for myself) will be more and more accurate with more and more estimations from all of you. Honest to God, there's a for-real science behind that too, but that'll have to be a different thread in a different forum on some other day.
Please be sure to answer BOTH questions too. Enquiring minds need to know.
Fishin-T
yessnoo:
well in my opinion...and i am totally basing this on opinion
i think the chance in your lifetime of capsizing is 100% or real close to it...I say this because i have already done it myself...it is very easy to get complacent...not to mention look at the amount of hulis we have at any given event...not all the events and get togethers have a huli but alot of them do have at least one...i think fishing from a kayak increases the odd also...your always reaching for something in odd positions...and you are not focusing all of your attention on paddling
as for how likely it is that you will lose your kayak in the process...i don't have a clue on this one...if your in the open ocean it seems pretty likely...out in the sound not as much but still wind and odd currents could easily do it....not to mention you are probably most likely to huli in adverse conditions...weird currents that turned the boat unexpectedly or a wave that catches you off guard...if your in a river it seems very likely to me
but you said we could shoot from the hip and thats what i did lol
Pisco Sicko:
Shooting from the hip here, Tom:
1) Got to figure close to 100% chance. For rookies the likelihood per trip is relatively high; for experienced yakkers the likelihood is lower but they're going out more, so over a lifetime will probably end up in the drink at some point. Also have to figure that while rookies may blunder in to trouble more easily, old salts will likely willingly take more chances.
2) So situational, I have a hard time coming up with an answer. If the huli was a result of disorientation while reaching behind, the chances of losing the boat are probably low. If the huli was a result of rough conditions, there's a good chance that wind was a contributing factor to the roughness, and thus the chances of the boat blowing away are relatively high. So my guesstimate is in the range of 25-50% chance of having the boat blow away. I am certain that using a drift sock in windy situations will greatly reduce the chances of the boat blowing away (Insurance). It could be left on deck while paddling, so that if one did capsize, the chute automatically deployed.
Have you tried contacting George Gronseth or Chris Cunningham? With thier experience in the seakayak world, they may have a better grasp, especially of empirical data.
INSAYN:
With a paddle leashed to the boat, and you huli due to an unexpected wave or windy condition, does the leashed paddle act like a drift anchor at all? If so, would this be a good reason to use the leash?
Spot:
My barely educated opinion:
- If you stick with it, you will huli accidentally. No question about it. - Unless you're in a hurricane or whitewater, the chances are that your yak will only be a couple of strokes away. - Yes, a leashed paddle does work as a drift anchor. This is especially handy if you huli in the surf.