Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
March 28, 2024, 07:17:55 PM

Login with username, password and session length

Recent Topics

[March 27, 2024, 12:49:04 PM]

[March 27, 2024, 07:37:59 AM]

[March 26, 2024, 09:10:45 PM]

[March 25, 2024, 05:15:36 PM]

by Spot
[March 25, 2024, 02:39:54 PM]

by PNW
[March 24, 2024, 07:14:07 PM]

[March 23, 2024, 10:59:04 PM]

[March 21, 2024, 06:23:10 AM]

[March 17, 2024, 06:42:23 PM]

[March 17, 2024, 08:44:53 AM]

[March 15, 2024, 06:45:09 PM]

[March 10, 2024, 05:55:18 PM]

[March 10, 2024, 11:20:08 AM]

[February 29, 2024, 07:05:43 AM]

[February 26, 2024, 01:31:23 PM]

Picture Of The Month



SD2OR with a trophy fall walleye

Topic: I'm no mathematician, but...  (Read 2973 times)

0 Members and 1 Guest are viewing this topic.

  • Location: The Gorge
  • Date Registered: Feb 2009
  • Posts: 697
... where did all of those predicted 600,000 Coho go for 2019?

Fred "True" Trujillo
"This above all: to thine own self, be true, and it must follow, as the day the night, thou canst not then be false to any man."


workhard

  • Salmon
  • ******
  • Get off your computer and fish
  • Location: Bellingham
  • Date Registered: Sep 2015
  • Posts: 712
... where did all of those predicted 600,000 Coho go for 2019?

Fred "True" Trujillo

There's a variety of methods used to forecast salmon returns: some of the more common ones are modeling the expected returns for the next year based on the number of jacks returning for the current year and counting the number of smolts exiting and modeling that to an expected return in three years. This is done individually by the system and your 600k number is the sum of all the systems. Now each of these methods has a variance around them which sums around the 600k number and could give a confidence interval in the 100's of thousands for the returns, and none of them directly account for ocean conditions which is a huge and complex system - and not very friendly to the Coho this summer.
« Last Edit: October 28, 2019, 08:41:30 AM by workhard »


AndyFishes

  • Rockfish
  • ****
  • Location: Port Townsend
  • Date Registered: Oct 2016
  • Posts: 109
I had my best season yet for coho. Mostly from the beach (a couple kayak caught) but definitely beat the hell out of last year.

I miss it so bad I got the shakes :'(. I've cast and painted 70 rotator lures in the last couple of weeks just to have something to do.
Pic for flavor:


snopro

  • Sturgeon
  • *******
  • Location: HR
  • Date Registered: Jun 2008
  • Posts: 1111
Nice painting.  Try a couple half white/half black on the long axis.


AndyFishes

  • Rockfish
  • ****
  • Location: Port Townsend
  • Date Registered: Oct 2016
  • Posts: 109
I like that idea. Kind of a "cookies and cream" or "cop car". I think I'll do that and put some silver flash tape in the center. most of the others are getting some flash of various color too. I usually fish these w/ a 2.5" hoochie. Now I gotta go cast a few more!


Clayman

  • Salmon
  • ******
  • Location: Newport, OR
  • Date Registered: Feb 2017
  • Posts: 778
What I found interesting was how the early summer bite in the ocean was HOT, with fish seemingly everywhere. Then some funky ocean conditions set in, and the fish scattered. Ocean Coho fishing devolved into more of a grind in late summer, and I was damn surprised to see almost half of the non-select season quota left on the table as September came to a close.

I sure wouldn't run any stats on my personal observations, but I seemed to notice far less bait in the nearshore areas as the summer progressed, especially compared to last year. Nearly all the Coho I kept in that period had empty stomachs. It gives the impression that the fish were there in early July, but largely disappeared by late August. Where did they go?
aMayesing Bros.


workhard

  • Salmon
  • ******
  • Get off your computer and fish
  • Location: Bellingham
  • Date Registered: Sep 2015
  • Posts: 712
What I found interesting was how the early summer bite in the ocean was HOT, with fish seemingly everywhere. Then some funky ocean conditions set in, and the fish scattered. Ocean Coho fishing devolved into more of a grind in late summer, and I was damn surprised to see almost half of the non-select season quota left on the table as September came to a close.

I sure wouldn't run any stats on my personal observations, but I seemed to notice far less bait in the nearshore areas as the summer progressed, especially compared to last year. Nearly all the Coho I kept in that period had empty stomachs. It gives the impression that the fish were there in early July, but largely disappeared by late August. Where did they go?

Don't know about Oregon waters but in WA they we concentrated in pockets of cooler water during their ocean phase. If you look at the NOAA SST anamoly charts over the summer you can see just how nasty it was. WA saw lower numbers of hatchery fish coming in along with a really alarmingly small body size and shut down a lot of their Puget sound fisheries early because it looked a lot like the coho apocalypse of 2015.


bogueYaker

  • Lingcod
  • *****
  • Pace the halls and climb the walls
  • Location: Now back in NC
  • Date Registered: Aug 2019
  • Posts: 405
WA saw lower numbers of hatchery fish coming in along with a really alarmingly small body size and shut down a lot of their Puget sound fisheries early because it looked a lot like the coho apocalypse of 2015.

I've been wondering about how the run compared to the forecasted run, and to past runs. Does WDFW release any sort of analysis of the salmon season? Something like - "Here's what we forecasted, here's what actually happened, and here's why we think it might have happened"?

Personally, this was my best salmon season ever (also my first, but I'm trying to be a glass half full kind of guy). By the numbers, how does it compare to past seasons?
« Last Edit: October 29, 2019, 11:38:49 PM by bogueYaker »


workhard

  • Salmon
  • ******
  • Get off your computer and fish
  • Location: Bellingham
  • Date Registered: Sep 2015
  • Posts: 712
« Last Edit: March 11, 2020, 10:21:22 PM by workhard »


bogueYaker

  • Lingcod
  • *****
  • Pace the halls and climb the walls
  • Location: Now back in NC
  • Date Registered: Aug 2019
  • Posts: 405
Hey workhard, thanks for pointing me in the right direction and providing me with the terminology of the items. I'll be taking a look at this over the winter -- I'll try to avoid asking lazy questions :)


workhard

  • Salmon
  • ******
  • Get off your computer and fish
  • Location: Bellingham
  • Date Registered: Sep 2015
  • Posts: 712
Hey workhard, thanks for pointing me in the right direction and providing me with the terminology of the items. I'll be taking a look at this over the winter -- I'll try to avoid asking lazy questions :)

It's interesting stuff, but there are Chinook to be caught all year in the Puget Sound. I'd rather be out there chasing them. You don't get good at fishing when there are fish everywhere, you get good at fishing when it's slow. That's when you have time to explore, experiment, observe, think and practice. What does run-size matter to a fisherman that whacks the hell out of them even if it's slow?