Now I REALLY need your help.

Most of you saw where I opened a thread recently called "I'm a FOOL, please help".  Well, a lot of the members DID help and they've made it pretty clear to me that it's the cold water that's the answer when I asked "what's a NWKA's biggest threat out there?"  If you didn't read Kalitype's answer, then get the hell back over there and check it out.  But I ALSO explained that I see safety kinda like risk management.  You know... how much risk are we talking, really, vs how much insurance (or risk avoidance) should I have on me.

Now, number oriented engineer kind of guy that I am I crave some data to at least mull over.  I can't imagine that I can find any hard numbers to answer my question, but I'm nearly certain that I can develope a pretty good gut feel for the situation with enough input from you guys (and gals), the NWKA membership.  Enough to where I myself at least, can have a good enough feel of it to form what will have to pass (to me again) for hard data.  Alright, so here's my big burning question this time and, whoops, yeah, it's another two parter:


1. "What are the odds that I might accidentally capsize my SOT in my lifetime if I continue to go out there about as much as the average NWKA member?"

2.  "If I had such a capsize, what are the odds that my kayak might slip beyond my reach when it happens?"


Part of the setup here is that I'm not talking about times when I'm practicing my re-entries and I'm not talking about times where I'm playing in the surf.  Those are examples of times when I KNOW it's gonna happen or at least times when I'm pretty sure it's gonna happen, and that's not what I crave to know about.  I feel a need to formulate to myself (who knows why?) how likely is this accidental incident, really.

Feel free to shoot totally from the hip if you like, but anecdotal evidence carries a huge amount more weight.  Of course we can probably only be talking about estimates here, that's all I'm looking for.  Except that I said I don't see where you might find any numbers, but please by all means prove me wrong if you can do it.  I promise you that I am absolutely serious here, and I'm hoping for answers from a LOT of you members.  The "opinion" or estimation that I boil out of these anwers (one more time... for myself) will be more and more accurate with more and more estimations from all of you.  Honest to God, there's a for-real science behind that too, but that'll have to be a different thread in a different forum on some other day.

Please be sure to answer BOTH questions too.  Enquiring minds need to know.


Fishin-T

well in my opinion...and i am totally basing this on opinion

i think the chance in your lifetime of capsizing is 100% or real close to it...I say this because i have already done it myself...it is very easy to get complacent...not to mention look at the amount of hulis we have at any given event...not all the events and get togethers have a huli but alot of them do have at least one...i think fishing from a kayak increases the odd also...your always reaching for something in odd positions...and you are not focusing all of your attention on paddling

as for how likely it is that you will lose your kayak in the process...i don't have a clue on this one...if your in the open ocean it seems pretty likely...out in the sound not as much but still wind and odd currents could easily do it....not to mention you are probably most likely to huli in adverse conditions...weird currents that turned the boat unexpectedly or a wave that catches you off guard...if your in a river it seems very likely to me

but you said we could shoot from the hip and thats what i did lol

Shooting from the hip here, Tom:

1) Got to figure close to 100% chance. For rookies the likelihood per trip is relatively high; for experienced yakkers the likelihood is lower but they're going out more, so over a lifetime will probably end up in the drink at some point. Also have to figure that while rookies may blunder in to trouble more easily, old salts will likely willingly take more chances.

2) So situational, I have a hard time coming up with an answer. If the huli was a result of disorientation while reaching behind, the chances of losing the boat are probably low. If the huli was a result of rough conditions, there's a good chance that wind was a contributing factor to the roughness, and thus the chances of the boat blowing away are relatively high. So my guesstimate is in the range of 25-50% chance of having the boat blow away. I am certain that using a drift sock in windy situations will greatly reduce the chances of the boat blowing away (Insurance). It could be left on deck while paddling, so that if one did capsize, the chute automatically deployed.

Have you tried contacting George Gronseth or Chris Cunningham? With thier experience in the seakayak world, they may have a better grasp, especially of empirical data.

With a paddle leashed to the boat, and you huli due to an unexpected wave or windy condition, does the leashed paddle act like a drift anchor at all?  If so, would this be a good reason to use the leash?

My barely educated opinion:

- If you stick with it, you will huli accidentally.  No question about it.
- Unless you're in a hurricane or whitewater, the chances are that your yak will only be a couple of strokes away.
- Yes, a leashed paddle does work as a drift anchor.  This is especially handy if you huli in the surf.

1. "What are the odds that I might accidentally capsize my SOT in my lifetime if I continue to go out there about as much as the average NWKA member?"

The chances of unintentional Huli? Excellent. You want a number? In terms of probability,,, 1.
The when of it is much less clear, Allen for example claims to have never huli'd in clear water*. I, on the other hand, have made up for any missed huli's Allen (and others) may have had. But I tend to try things that push the envelope a bit more than most. I've also been doing this for a while and have less paddle experience/training than he does. All that's to say I'm of the school of hard knocks.  Its not that I'm suicidal or anything, it's just that I've tended to try things that I think can be done that others thought couldn't (like anchor in deep, moving, cold water, install a fishfinder or even fish in the ocean in an SOT)
So how do you push back the when of your unintentional huli? Don't be an early adopter (and watch out when I say "I wonder if,,,,,?")

2.  "If I had such a capsize, what are the odds that my kayak might slip beyond my reach when it happens?"

Fishin-T

Well, I wonder if,,,,,

Actually, as I expressed in an earlier post, getting separated from the boat is one of my biggest concerns. Again, I have one of those "don't asks" stories. One of the first times I anchored in deep fast water was at Clackamette Park during the Shad madness. It caused a bit of a stir on the ifish board, but in that instance, I was back on the boat without getting my hat wet. Practiced reflex I guess.

 I gotta disagree with Spot on needing a hurricane wind to get separated though (which ain't easy as he catches more fish than azzhats). I tried it (stupidstuntman) and I was really surprised how quickly the boat moved away in just a fair breeze (10-15 mph), but like he said, a tethered paddle would slow it. An anchored boat and current, on the other hand is another matter and I think we need to open up a discussion on tethered paddlers.

Earlier Post:

http://www.northwestkayakanglers.com/index.php/topic,2450.msg22341.html#msg22341

Ifish stir:

http://www.ifish.net/board/showthread.php?p=533774#post533774 

(scroll back up to post #20 to see what stinkpots think of sot's)




*That just means I'll have to swim up behind him and dump him over the next time I see him.

It might be good if people would say how many times they've actually gone over and at what times in their career that was.  You think?

OK, I'll admit it, I'm afraid of the water.  Fear is a good thing.  I don't go out in what I consider marginal conditions.  I religiously check the wind, swell, and tide forecasts.  And if it looks marginal, I just don't go, or I go somewhere else.  There will be other days.

-Allen

It might be good if people would say how many times they've actually gone over and at what times in their career that was.  You think?

OK, I'll admit it, I'm afraid of the water.  Fear is a good thing.  I don't go out in what I consider marginal conditions.  I religiously check the wind, swell, and tide forecasts.  And if it looks marginal, I just don't go, or I go somewhere else.  There will be other days.

-Allen

girly mon!

Actually, Allen just has good sense. And yes, the longer I've been paddling the less I've had spontaneous bottom inspections. But I think the early roll overs have contributed to a feeling of stability in most boats. In fact, anytime I've rolled over, I feel MUCH more stable afterwards. Maybe it's just the effect of "not" having to try to stay dry. I dunno?

Oh and I am very careful with the "look over the shoulder and reach for something in the tankwell" move.  That move has accounted for the majority of deep water rolls that I've heard of.  You know the one, where you look back in your tankwell while reaching for something in the back.  I usually just reach blind as I mostly know where everything is behind me.  If I can't find it and it's calm and I'm feeling lucky, I'll sneak a peak.  When in doubt, I'll go side saddle.

-Allen

Pretty good answers so far.  A few of you seemed to be almost apologetic, especially with regard to the second question.  Please don't be!  I'm going to explain, just a little, of what I claimed was a science behind my goofy exercise.  But please don't get side tracked with discussion about that... open a new thread if you need to.  I'd really really like to get some data from the membership.  Feel free to throw down a number from the top of your head, or pull one from your butt.  Just make it a sincere attempt to make an estimate to answer the two questions.

Okay, the science that I'm referring to is called "The Wisdom of the Crowd" theory.  It was discovered by a guy named Francis Galton years and years ago, but it's only just recently begun to get really picked up by businesses around the world.  Don't ask me how, but it has a lot to do with the software magic behind what google does for us.  Okay, simply put, the theory holds that an average of estimates taken from a large enough and diverse enough INDEPENDANT crowd will nearly always be more accurate than an estimate given by any one expert.

That's it.  That's close to the whole thing in a nut shell, and the "independant" part means: please don't be influenced by the estimates of others.  So the more members that will respond to this little survey with truly honest answers from the gut, the closer we can get (I suppose) to the truth.  Most of you have been "qualifying" your answers, and that's fine cause that byproduct is kind of what this safety forum is all about.  But to help us get a more direct feel for what it is that I'm searching for, go ahead and throw out a number, please.

Fishin-T

1) 100%
2) 10%.  Based on an assumption that a 10 knot wind can push my kayak beyond my reach, and the percentage of time I'm fishing in a 10+ knot wind.

Hmmm, that was a gut call, but really, how many times have you heard of of someone separating from their yak?

-Allen

 
   # 1 ==  100%
   
   #2  === 20%

1) 100%
2) 10%.  Based on an assumption that a 10 knot wind can push my kayak beyond my reach, and the percentage of time I'm fishing in a 10+ knot wind.

Hmmm, that was a gut call, but really, how many times have you heard of of someone separating from their yak?

-Allen

Really good question.   I don't want to skew the results of the "independant" crowd until we feel like this survey is over, and so I don't want to post any case histories that might be out there until that time.  I haven't asked George Gronseth for any input to this question yet, but I'm dying to do just that.  I can't imagine that he can tell us the odds that it will happen to any one SOT kayaker, and hence the experiment.  But just like his SIK stories (at least most of them) in his book, "Sea Kayaker's Deep Trouble", I'm betting that he has a story or two that he can relay to us that can give some ideas about real life and death things that can go wrong out there for a SOT kayaker or SOT kayak angler.

Another way to look at Allen's question...  when you answer question #2, maybe you could tell us if this has ever happened to you?  Or any one you know?

Fishin-T

I've got a sit-in yak
Chances I'll huli eventually-- guessing 100%---come close several times--mostly on the launch/landing.
Chances yak will scoot out of reach after huli--0%.  Too much water in cockpit.

1)99.9%
2)17.6%

I'm not the .01% already did it and got it out of the way..