Reliability of Short Weather Windows at Pacific City?

I see forecasts on MSW for swells within my comfort zone for Friday and the following Wednesday. But with big swell days on either side, I'm wondering about the reliability/accuracy of these forecasts. Of course, I'll be tracking conditions as we get closer, and will probably wait until consecutive days of sea and wind conditions look good before bolting for the beach, but I'm missing the salt!

Don't trust small weather windows.

It changes so much I make my call the day before if I'm going out or not. The ocean has been crappy. Still waiting on a good day. It's been too long! Lol

Make sure you got a backup plan for one day Windows and don't chance it if it don't look good. From living on the coast you learn earlier the better for launch in most cases.

Sometimes you just have to make the drive with the possibility that you may not get out.  If the dory guys are going out in numbers it's a fairly safe bet that you are okay to at least fish near the rock for a bit and make it back okay.  For me, if it looks doable after watching it for a while and the offshore buoy info looks good I'll go for it.

For a backup plan, what's the best place to launch in Tillamook bay?

I'd go with Spot on this one, don't trust a small window forecast. This time of year the weather is so all over the place and can't be trusted.

They call them "sucker" forecasts for a reason.

More than once I've made the drive and not launched.

Good back up plans:
1.) Drink beer at the Pelican
2.) Surf perch at Fogarty Creek
3.) Tillamook Perch/Rockfish

For a backup plan, what's the best place to launch in Tillamook bay?

Right behind my kayak in the parking lot of the old fish cleaning station.... As long as I don't have plans and it is around 2 hours till low tide. Just need to give me a heads up.

Beware of small windows. Sometimes the swell software gets confused and tells you primary swell is good, but when you look close at secondary it can sometimes be were the energy is at. You add the two together(primary and secondary) and they're sometimes just as big as the other days around the smaller day.