Inaugural NWKA Whiskey Gulch Yak Classic - May 18th & 19th

Not quite as bad on the spot forecast
http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=59.882046686648536&lon=-151.93267822265625

But we need to keep an eye on it.

Yeesh - let's hope blows through quick.

And NOAA:

PKZ140-160300-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 AM AKDT WED MAY 15 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT...EXCEPT
VARIABLE 10 KT N OF KALGIN ISLAND. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

Compare NOAA info above w link Kard posted - same NOAA, very different predictions. Any good way to get real time, say buoy or shore station?

Compare NOAA info above w link Kard posted - same NOAA, very different predictions. Any good way to get real time, say buoy or shore station?

I've actually been decently impressed with the spot forecast.  The big waves look to be at the southern line for cook inlet.  Winds from the west typically makes for an entertaining surf launch and landing.  My limit on forecast is typically 15knts and 3ft.  But a lot depends on wind direction.  last week was supposed to be N15knts and 3ft.  It was flat calm part of the day with 6 inch chop the rest of the day.

I think we should begin discussing options after the 4pm Thursday update.  Because the tides are such that the best fishing is likely to be very early in the morning its important to make sure the consitions are safe.  But that's relative and different for each individual.  This is a informal fun get together, each participant can only judge for themselves whether the conditions are safe or not.  I'm not going to stop any one from fishing in bad conditions but I think we should decide as a group since there are some rewards out there, on whether the fish caught during certain times or conditions are eligible for the prizes.  Summer is long, there will be other days if get blown off.  Safety has to come first.

the weather

Not perfect but here is a webcam for clam gulch
http://alaskaloghaven-cookinlet.viewnetcam.com/CgiStart?page=Single&Language=0

There used to be a great buoy but it broke off its mooring...again...near anchor point. 

A few shore stations are listed here.  National Buoy Data Center
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/

While I have a little internet connection...
 A post from the Anchor Point derby below.  I think I say it somewhere but keep in mind the current chart is for a mile or two off shore.  The current will slow down close to shore first then stop a little later the further out in the inlet you go.  The wind will also work against you almost as much as the current. 

My gut feeling says we will be fine on Saturday. Might be a tad sporty in the early morning but hoping the system blows through a touch early. 

The updated spot forecast looks good for Saturday.  They are forecasting the big waves to be on the Southwest boundary of Cook Inlet.

So lets say you launch at 6am.  The tide is moving North till 9:33am.  While its a tad more complicated than this, roughly speaking if you head North for three hours, it will be 3 hours drifting back south if you didn't paddle or peddle.  But notice the tides are super small this weekend.  The current velocity is very slow relative to other days.  it won't be easy but you could even make headway during the strongest current which is not normal. 

So if you don't want to fish 6 hours, after you launch, you need to troll or move south.  You will still likely slowly drift to the North but not as far.  then it a shorter drift back.  What you don't want to do unless you are in extremely good condition is to overshoot the launch to the down current side.  If you overshoot the launch by say a half mile, that's an hour of paddling to make it back up against the current.  Quicker to just beach it and go walk and get the truck. 

Agree - 10 to 15 kts, seas 2 to 3 is about my limit. Hard to imagine, but you can fill up a sit-on-top and it's ugly (buddy had a leaking front hatch - had to paddle 3 miles into 15+ kts headwind - didn't completely  sink, but did have to call park service for a rescue. They were kind enough to recover the yak as well. buddies never gave me a hard time again about carrying a marine VHF!).

I've been in some pretty rough stuff out there. Never really felt in danger but fishing sure is tough and the landings can get sporty

Agree - 10 to 15 kts, seas 2 to 3 is about my limit. Hard to imagine, but you can fill up a sit-on-top and it's ugly (buddy had a leaking front hatch - had to paddle 3 miles into 15+ kts headwind - didn't completely  sink, but did have to call park service for a rescue. They were kind enough to recover the yak as well. buddies never gave me a hard time again about carrying a marine VHF!).

Its a good lesson for sure.  A suggestion if people haven't already is to stuff a few pool noodle foam thingies into your kayak.  I amazingly found some at the Palmer Fred Meyers while I was driving through for ice fishing and bought a few.  The good news here is that unless you decide you have to really go after the big halibut which typically but not always are farther offshore, you will likely always be within one mile of shore if not closer. 

Like rimfirematt said, the kings are very close to the beach.  The more we get into the summer time the more its true.  The feeder kings can be found out to about the 120 ft line but they are close as well.  But the local kings should be making a run up the inlet here soon as well.  They will be larger (though not as good eating) so I personally think more kings will be found closer to shore.  There's a reason they let the commercial drift fleet fish but stop the beach set net sites when they are running short of kings.   

Catching a king will be key in this derby.  I would think with most if not all people who put in a few hours of halibut fishing will catch a halibut of some size.

For those that have never tried fishing the inlet, my recommendation would be to launch around 7am.  Fish through the high tide at 9:20am and be back on the beach at around 11am or noon.  If you are not sure of yourself, I would recommend that you start moving towards the south until you get a feel for what you are doing.  It doesn't really matter if you are paddling and not moving relative to the ground.  As long as you have some line angle and your gear is working its ok.

Then I'd continue to look for the slack tides and launch to hit the two hours on each side of the slack.Just keep in mind that if you head out as the tide is turning, it could be a 12 hour day before you get back to the launch.  In addition to that, you will likely be carried out of the open king area so unless you are targeting halibut, its not a good idea anyways.  Having said that, if I catch a king early, and the weather is good, I hope to try and make a long range run out into the inlet to try for halibut.  Long range meaning 3 to 4 miles out.   But everything would have to be perfect.

Every 12 hours seems like a new lottery ticket as I check the weather.  But in the end, you really never know until you go given the forecast in the 2 to 4 ft range. 

I think we should begin discussing options after the 4pm Thursday update.  Because the tides are such that the best fishing is likely to be very early in the morning its important to make sure the consitions are safe.  But that's relative and different for each individual.  This is a informal fun get together, each participant can only judge for themselves whether the conditions are safe or not.  I'm not going to stop any one from fishing in bad conditions but I think we should decide as a group since there are some rewards out there, on whether the fish caught during certain times or conditions are eligible for the prizes.  Summer is long, there will be other days if get blown off.  Safety has to come first.

Aaargh.  Just lost a post in reply to the above to the computer gods. Here goes again:

After the 4 pm update today, let's weigh in on setting a no-go threshold. That way, there's a rule that we can apply on Saturday morning after the forecast update at 4 am, and when we're on site. And since Rudy has put so much effort and energy toward getting this organized, I'd say we ask him to make the call applying the rule at 6 am on Saturday. If conditions (forecast and direct observation) meet or exceed the no-go threshold, we can revisit the call every couple of hours. We'll be there anyway, after all.  Might end up not needing it at all, might end up having a shorter tournament time, might find ourselves in a blizzard.  But that seems to me to be the responsible approach.

Once we pass the no-go threshold, of course, conditions could still deteriorate -- and then each of us is on her own to decide whether or not to assume the risk in going out, or staying out. 

I think we should begin discussing options after the 4pm Thursday update.  Because the tides are such that the best fishing is likely to be very early in the morning its important to make sure the consitions are safe.  But that's relative and different for each individual.  This is a informal fun get together, each participant can only judge for themselves whether the conditions are safe or not.  I'm not going to stop any one from fishing in bad conditions but I think we should decide as a group since there are some rewards out there, on whether the fish caught during certain times or conditions are eligible for the prizes.  Summer is long, there will be other days if get blown off.  Safety has to come first.

Aaargh.  Just lost a post in reply to the above to the computer gods. Here goes again:

After the 4 pm update today, let's weigh in on setting a no-go threshold. That way, there's a rule that we can apply on Saturday morning after the forecast update at 4 am, and when we're on site. And since Rudy has put so much effort and energy toward getting this organized, I'd say we ask him to make the call applying the rule at 6 am on Saturday. If conditions (forecast and direct observation) meet or exceed the no-go threshold, we can revisit the call every couple of hours. We'll be there anyway, after all.  Might end up not needing it at all, might end up having a shorter tournament time, might find ourselves in a blizzard.  But that seems to me to be the responsible approach.

Once we pass the no-go threshold, of course, conditions could still deteriorate -- and then each of us is on her own to decide whether or not to assume the risk in going out, or staying out.

Perhaps I have found the "more organized" counterpart I was looking for!  I agree.  My only hesitation is that the "text" marine text forecast is so different from the "spot" forecast.  I would say the derby is postponed with anything over 20knts and 4ft.  If it calls for 15knts and 3 ft, its ok.  Now we just have to decide which forecast to look at so everyone is operating from the same page.  I know it penalizes the early arrivers but I think I am leaning toward the above is the initial call.  Then we make a "on the beach call" at 6am, and decide how long to postpone from there.

I am not going to make it till very late Friday.  But I will be at the site by 6am!!

Kachemak Bay is looking ok and given the wind swell direction, we may evenn be able to make a day trip out there.  Personally given the trend, I think we are going to get some fishing in this weekend.  I know people are traveling a distance and there are rewards to be had, but please don't forget this is a fun event and a way to introduce each other and to show the less experienced a great and SAFE time on the water. 

I shouldn't say this because she will outfish me but my focus this weekend will be to put Michele in a position to win this derby.  I know we are all competitive but I hope each of us that has experience on the inlet will set aside at least a part of their competitive spirit and take the time to mentor a less experienced person for cook inlet.  In fact I think one of the better prizes should go to the outstanding sportsperson who takes the time to do that and it could be a vote of the peers.  It really is the reason I want to do this derby is to A) Have fun.  B) Introduce more people to this great sport! 

Let me think about it and I will try to post later today.  My flight is at 5pm and I may be busy right up until then.

Spot forecast for Anchor Point is looking better and Zone forecast, though still more worrisome than the Spot forecast, has also moderated. Neither is sunshine and rainbows, but a little rain/snow doesn't bother me nearly as much as the wind. Fingers and toes crossed that the yak gods continue to shine upon us. Kard - thank you for continuing to share your detailed knowledge (was unaware of NOAA's spot forecasts).

Well currently in Anchor Point, the winds are only east 8.
http://alaskaloghaven-cookinlet.viewnetcam.com/CgiStart?page=Single&Language=0
the clam gulch cam definitely shows more than I have seen before I head out.  If you can see waves that far out, its not good though keep in mind Clam Gulch is MUCH shallower for MUCH further out.  Still you would not want to make a surf landing I don't think.  But it sure doesn't seem to be whitecapped as I would have thought given the forecast for today of North 25, seas 7ft.

Anxiously awaiting the 4pm update.  It should give an indication if the system is going to stall, speed up, or do what they said it would do.

I'm still heading down there regardless of derby decision, probaly shoot to be on beach by noon Friday. I was gonna leave today but I don't se any reason to be in a rush!

Infact I'm pretty unmotivated right now. I've been hardly doing anything to get ready.

Most of the time you do get windows of opportunity to be able to fish some. 2 weeks ago when I was there it was crap pretty much for 4 days but I was able to get out a little and brought home a halibut

It's amazing you will look out there and it will be rough, than 2 hours later it will be fine, than 4 hours later it will suck. Key is pay attention if you think it might get rough and stay close to shore. I watch the surf more than anything. I've even stayed out in the water till the surf dies down.

I'm unmotivated as well based on work and weather.  Work has decided to poo on me for the foreseeable future.

The zone (text) forecast is the factor I'd weigh least in making the no-go threshold call on Saturday. Considering the broader forecast is meaningful in tonight's evaluation only because suggests the trend, maybe. But over the course of this evening we should be focusing on defining what our no-go threshold will be for Saturday morning. Unless they update it today to show worsening conditions for the entire weekend over 20/4, then I'm heading south.

At 20/4, nobody would have much heartburn over the no-go call. The tough decision is when it's 15/3, and that's when our being on the beach will make the difference between a good or bad call on whether our contest starts when the tide is optimal.

Fingers crossed!