Depoe Bay Friday MSW vs NOAA

Yes, I know this will put a hex on the day, sorry.

All week I have been watching Magic Sea Weeds forecast for Otter Rock. It has been painting a beautiful picture for the day (Friday) Now it has turned to needing to be an early day. Then I decided to check NOAA. DAM Gina!
NOAA says stay home in bed and don't even dream about it.
Maybe not that bad, but not good for kayakers..

I always think which waves and (or) weather prognosticator is best is really hard to decide.  Magic Seaweed is for surfers and is concerned with surf conditions out to a couple hundred yards.  NOAA is predicting open water conditions and often states something like "out 5 nautical miles".

But the real answer is that whatever forecast you prefer to use, it's good for a few hours at most.  There's been a weird offshore thermal trough sitting out there that has been unpredictably breaking up and re-forming for weeks and conditions can change hour-by-hour.  Based on what we've put up with all year farther down here on the south coast, I think I'd believe that it will be a very early day.

But that could change by Friday morning...   

I always think which waves and (or) weather prognosticator is best is really hard to decide.  Magic Seaweed is for surfers and is concerned with surf conditions out to a couple hundred yards.  NOAA is predicting open water conditions and often states something like "out 5 nautical miles".

I don't agree, not the first time right?      

swells are swells, surf is surf.  the key here is to read the MSW and NOAA forecasts correctly, they are providing basically the same data just in different formats.

here is the snapshot from this morning for Depot Bay Friday:



first, ignore the NOAA 'Significant Wave', that is like the 'ocean conditions for dummies' part of their forecast. 

next, compare the NOAA 'Swell Height 1' with MSW swell 1 plus 3, at say 9am, MSW is 3' on 8s, which is the same as NOAA at 9am.  Then notice the MSW 4s to 5s secondary swell, that is the wind waves coming out of the NW, NOAA shows that at the bottom without providing period or direction info. 

jump to noon for example, NOAA is giving less details but basically a forecast of 4' + 2' on a 5s period.  MSW is 1.9' + 0.9' on 8s + 2.5' on 5s.  That is basically the same forecast, MSW is just providing more period and directional info, plus one more significant digit.

I've been out on days with short period swells and waves like this, I don't enjoy fishing on those sort of days, actually, it's the barfing over the side of my kayak after 2 or 3 hours that I don't enjoy. 

 

I suppose if I squint my eyes and tilt my head just so... they look the same.  On the other hand, an hour's difference between predictions is a long time when you're in a kayak.  Good explanation of how to align the two forecasts, 'though.

(And it doesn't change the part about either forecast being reliable for only a few hours)

I use Windfinder and it's telling me that Friday is going to be snotty at best.
Only way to be sure is be there at 0630 and look at it.
I'll probably be drinking coffee at home.

I suppose if I squint my eyes and tilt my head just so... they look the same.  On the other hand, an hour's difference between predictions is a long time when you're in a kayak.  Good explanation of how to align the two forecasts, 'though.

(And it doesn't change the part about either forecast being reliable for only a few hours)

some people might call it 'squint and tilt', others would call it carefully analyzing what is basically the same data being presented slightly differently.  I prefer MSW because it doesn't 'digest' the data as much as NOAA does.  There are probably people that prefer just checking the NOAA "Significant Wave Height", see that it is 4' all day, and decide "LETS GO!".   

Yeah, as much as I really, like REALLY want to go, I am not wanting to drive that far to either be disappointed to the point of turning around, or launch and bounce wildly for a few hours, or to bag it and go to the Siletz wouldn't be completely horrible, but you would still get some wind.

I will be getting up fairly early and going to Detroit Lake instead. I have been hearing a number of reports of good sized Kokanee. So that is my plan.

Thanks!

I might be joining you at Detroit. Where are you launching from? Forecast is definitely not good enough for me to head to the coast.

I wound up not going. I as getting everything together and it has been so long since I tried for Kokanee and trout that I got frustrated and threw in the towel. Going to spend the day doing honey doos and cleaning the shop to be more prepared next time.