Weekend Ocean Forecast

Nice one Spot.Had me goin I was thinking, if it's that good up there it's gotta be good here too, but no!. I was like, "damn, those lucky guys"


Guess not so lucky,,,,

Unless NOAA likes to run their April Fools gags a bit long, here's the forecast from today.

Late Afternoon: N wind around 28 kt, with gusts as high as 37 kt. Showers likely. WNW swell 11 feet at 11 seconds.

Tonight: WNW wind 24 to 28 kt, with gusts as high as 37 kt. Showers likely, mainly before 9pm. WNW swell 11 feet at 11 seconds increasing to 14 feet. Wind waves 6 to 8 ft.

Friday: NW wind 19 to 24 kt decreasing to 12 to 17 kt in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 31 kt. A chance of showers, mainly before 11am. WNW swell 16 feet at 11 seconds. Wind waves 5 ft subsiding to 2 ft.

Friday Night: NW wind 7 to 12 kt becoming variable and less than 5 kt. Partly cloudy. NW swell 14 feet becoming WNW swell 11 feet. Wind waves 1 to 2 ft.

Saturday: ESE wind 5 to 10 kt becoming variable and less than 5 kt in the afternoon. Sunny. WNW swell 10 feet. Wind waves around 1 ft.

Saturday Night: Variable winds less than 5 kt becoming SE 6 to 11 kt in the evening. Mostly clear. W swell 6 feet. Wind waves around 1 ft.

Sunday: SE wind 9 to 12 kt becoming N in the afternoon. Sunny. W swell 5 feet. Wind waves around 1 ft.

Sunday Night: N wind 5 to 9 kt becoming variable and less than 5 kt after midnight. Partly cloudy. W swell 9 feet. Wind waves around 1 ft.

Monday: Variable winds 5 kt or less. A slight chance of rain. W swell 10 feet. Wind waves around 1 ft.

I have had good luck fishing the "trends" in ocean conditions ie. blocks of similar days (previous to your day) that develop a pattern you can trust..  I have not had much luck trying to force my fun into a tight window of "maybe".  Sometimes it works out but more often than not I roll up to the launch to see my expectations and the NOAA forecast don't match the actual conditions.

As of 4:30 this morning...

Today: NW wind 15 to 22 kt. A chance of showers before 11am. WNW swell 16 feet at 11 seconds. Wind waves 6 ft subsiding to 3 ft.

Tonight: NW wind 10 to 15 kt becoming variable and less than 5 kt. Partly cloudy. NW swell 12 feet at 10 seconds. Wind waves 1 to 3 ft.

Saturday: ESE wind 5 to 9 kt becoming variable and less than 5 kt. Sunny. WNW swell 8 feet at 11 seconds. Wind waves around 1 ft.

Saturday Night: E wind 8 to 13 kt. Mostly clear. W swell 6 feet. Wind waves 1 to 2 ft.

Sunday: E wind 9 to 13 kt becoming N in the afternoon. Sunny. W swell 5 feet. Wind waves around 2 ft.[/font]

Sunday Night: N wind 5 to 9 kt becoming variable and less than 5 kt after midnight. Partly cloudy. W swell 9 feet. Wind waves around 1 ft.

Monday: Variable winds 5 kt or less. Partly sunny. W swell 10 feet. Wind waves around 1 ft.

Monday Night: Variable winds less than 5 kt becoming NNW 5 to 8 kt in the evening. Mostly cloudy. WNW swell 9 feet. Wind waves around 1 ft.

Tuesday: NNW wind 8 to 16 kt becoming WNW in the afternoon. A slight chance of showers. W swell 7 feet. Wind waves 1 to 2 ft.[/size]

This is definitely worth keeping an eye on.  I know I will be!

I'd like to re-itterate though:  Check the near-shore AND outside buoys before paddling out!

Most of the models are showing a very rapid incease in swell.  Some say Sunday afternoon, some say Sunday evening.  But this is a set-up for finding yourself caught outside on a 10 foot swell (20' faces).

I don't know, that looks like it could be a nasty April's Fool from mother nature.

As of early this morning.....crack of dawn Wali? And as Spot so thoughtfully has pointed out, this forecast is for near coast and out to 70 miles.

Today: Variable winds less than 5 kt becoming ENE 5 to 8 kt in the afternoon. Sunny. WNW swell 9 feet at 11 seconds. Wind waves around 1 ft.

Tonight: ENE wind 8 to 11 kt becoming S after midnight. Mostly clear. WNW swell 6 feet at 11 seconds. Wind waves around 1 ft.

Sunday: SSE wind 5 to 10 kt becoming variable and less than 5 kt in the afternoon. Sunny. WNW swell 6 feet at 14 seconds. Wind waves around 1 ft.

Sunday Night: Variable winds less than 5 kt becoming ENE 5 to 9 kt after midnight. Mostly clear. W swell 9 feet. Wind waves around 1 ft.

Monday: ENE wind 9 to 17 kt becoming N in the afternoon. Mostly sunny. W swell 10 feet. Wind waves 1 to 2 ft.

Monday Night: NNE wind 10 to 17 kt. Partly cloudy. W swell 8 feet. Wind waves around 2 ft.

Tuesday: NNE wind 8 to 10 kt becoming SSW in the morning. Partly sunny. WNW swell 6 feet. Wind waves around 1 ft.

Tuesday Night: W wind 6 to 10 kt. A chance of rain. WNW swell 6 feet. Wind waves around 1 ft.

Wednesday: WSW wind 6 to 12 kt. A chance of showers. WNW swell 5 feet. Wind waves around 1 ft.

And tides from WestFly...

April 5, Sun
  Low  04:10 a.m.    2.1   4.2
  High  09:42 a.m.    6.7   4.6
  Low  04:41 p.m.   -0.1   6.8
  High  10:57 p.m.    6.7   6.8
 
Pacific City Cam http://www.innatcapekiwanda.com/pages/live-cam.html

It looks like I'll be heading out to Pacific City in the dark tomorrow and decide between the salt and a river float based on eyeball conditions. Anyone interested?

7AM PC Dory launch parking lot 

Jay