Feedback requested - Safety of Dungies in the Sound, esp'y Elliot Bay

Ok...using this document - https://wdfw.wa.gov/publications/01608/wdfw01608.pdf - I've tried making heads or tails, doing some math, avg weight of crab meat consumed, called WA DFW and a few other agencies, and I'm just not getting anywhere.

Can anyone tell me if dungies are safe to eat from Elliot Bay, and if so, what the max safe weight of dungie crab muscle per month would be? It seems like the sample size used in this survey is quite (way too) small, but it's just a starting point.

The EPA and put out a level re: PCBs that they considered safe at 49 ng/g a month per person. Of course, there are many other different types of pollutants/contaminants that would be of concern, but... crap. I'm worried now, esp'y considering the ridiculous amounts of crab i've consumed and put in the freezer, all harvested from the seattle area, since the recent opener.

This little guy ate too much crab from Elliot Bay.  The good news he could hear REALLY well.

Unless you're likely to become pregnant anytime soon I'd not be tooooo worried about it.  If you still have qualms, give it to a neighbor you don't like very much.  You know, as a peace treaty, ice-breaker kind of thing.

Well, i certainly hope that's the case, but I've got no idea if the data in this survey reflects that.

This surveys data was/is to be the basis of a human risk assessment report to be issued by the state Department of health but has not yet been published. That report will answer the questions I'm hopping on what I can teach how much is safe and from where.

In the meantime, since I have no idea when the reports will be forthcoming, I was hoping somebody with a scientific background might be able to take a look at the link I provided and come to some preliminary conclusions. Paging UplandSandPiper!

As dictated by Siri so excuse the typos

During the season I eat a ton of crab out of Puget Sound caught not far from ... Wait ... what was the question?

from our resident scientist, Uplandsandpiper:

"I reviewed the report and pulled out the data on Dungies from Elliot Bay. Elliot Bay stood out in toxicity for the following persistent organic pesticides and heavy metals. Now be aware some of these are benign.

1.) PCB - a known xenoestrogen in that it mimics estrogens and is particularly problematic for children who are still developing.
2.) PBDE - used as a flame retardant, can cause hyperthyroidism in girls if the mother is exposed, typically transferred from mom to child through breast milk 
3.) DDT - also a xenoestrogen, really problematic for pregnant woman...miscarriages, premature births etc..., also causally linked to increased diabetes risk in populations with high exposure in the US and Europe, DDT was outlawed but it and its derivative DDD (what it breaks down into) are very long lived which is why it is still around
4.) PAH - Polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons - some are known carcinogens but none of those documented in Elliot Bay are linked to cancer in humans.
5.) Mercury - disrupts the nervous system

You can see that most of the above are really only problematic for the "at-risk" population being pregnant woman and children. Now lets get into the math.

For each chemical the WDFW reports a concentration to weight in the crab meat and for each chemical government have set tolerable daily intake value usually related to body weight for each toxin. For mathematical purposes I assume that most of the crab you are getting are about 3 lbs and that 25% of that weight is meat (340 grams). I also had to use the average weight of Americans which is about 80 kg of 180 lbs to run the calculations. I did not run calculations for PAHs because none found in Elliot Bay are considered dangerous.

Here are the results:
1.) PCBs - 1 crab every 8 days. The United States has no standard tolerable daily intake so I used Canada's.
2.) PBDE - 1 crab everyday.
3.) DDT - 1800 crabs a day!
4.) Mercury - 3.75 crabs a day

It looks like PCBs are what limit you. Standards vary all over the world Australia's limit is twice as high as Canada's and the UK is three times lower. Like I said PCB's are most risky to children (born and unborn). You should be safe having a crab a week or couple crabs every couple weeks."

from our resident scientist, Uplandsandpiper:
1.) PCB - a known xenoestrogen in that it mimics estrogens and is particularly problematic for children who are still developing. ...

Which brings to memory a long-time, good buddy, great guy, beloved friend, granola-eating, berk-wearing, Volvo driving, eco-freak, commie who eschewed cow's milk and red meat for soy products.  After some time he started having limp-dick syndrome.  Bummer.  Although he was in the typical age-group for such difficulty, otherwise he was in great health, skinny, active on a daily basis, (he's a commercial flower farmer), etc.  Finally went to the doctor and had an extensive discussion.  The amount of soy products he was eating was mentioned.  Hmmmm....

Soy products contain two natural drugs: genistein and daidzein. These are phytoestrogens (plant-produced estrogens), and my buddy was undergoing a "healthy"  diet-induced sex-change.  He cut out the soy and in a month or so, the soldier was back at attention. I'm not sure of what the lesson is in this anecdote, but I am sure there is one in there somewhere.

And that brings to mind this old one:

A guy goes to a doctor and says, "Doc, you've got to help me. My penis is orange." Doctor pauses to think and asks the guy to drop his pants so he can check. Damned if the guy's penis isn't orange. Doc tells the guy, "This is very strange. Sometimes things like this are caused by a lot of stress in a person's life."

Probing as to the causes of possible stress, the doc asks the guy, "How are things going at work?" The guy responds that he was fired about six weeks ago. The doctor tells him that this must be the cause of the stress. Guy responds, "No. The boss was a real asshole, I had to work 20-30 hours of overtime every week and I had no say in anything that was happening. I found a new job a couple of weeks ago where I can set my own hours, I'm getting paid double what I got on the old job and the boss is a really great guy." So the doc figures this isn't the reason.

He asks the guy, "How's your home life?" The guy says, "Well, I got divorced about eight months ago." The doc figures that this has got to be the reason for all of the guys stress. Guy says, "No. For years, all I listened to was nag, nag, nag. God, am I glad to be rid of that old bitch." So the doc takes a few minutes to think a little longer.

He inquires, "Do you have any hobbies or a social life?" The guy replies, "No, not really. Most nights I sit home, watch some porno flicks and munch on Cheetos."

from our resident scientist, Uplandsandpiper:
1.) PCB - a known xenoestrogen in that it mimics estrogens and is particularly problematic for children who are still developing. ...

Which brings to memory a long-time, good buddy, great guy, beloved friend, granola-eating, berk-wearing, Volvo driving, eco-freak, commie who eschewed cow's milk and red meat for soy products.  After some time he started having limp-dick syndrome.  Bummer.  Although he was in the typical age-group for such difficulty, otherwise he was in great health, skinny, active on a daily basis, (he's a commercial flower farmer), etc.  Finally went to the doctor and had an extensive discussion.  The amount of soy products he was eating was mentioned.  Hmmmm....

Soy products contain two natural drugs: genistein and daidzein. These are phytoestrogens (plant-produced estrogens), and my buddy was undergoing a "healthy"  diet-induced sex-change.  He cut out the soy and in a month or so, the soldier was back at attention. I'm not sure of what the lesson is in this anecdote, but I am sure there is one in there somewhere.

Note to self: Avoid edamame. 

Tofu is disgusting anyway, so no loss there.

agedashi tofu would beg to differ. but to each their own..