Reading Magic Seaweed

The forecast for Coos Bay for the weekend has a swell of 9-10 ft and 14s with winds of 2-10 mph miles from about every direction, then Tues-Wed 2-4' at 13-16s and winds 20-30 mph consistently from the NW.  I understand east and south winds are hinky, but everything else looks good those days. Then everything looks good except for the wind strength the next Tues-Wed.  Have read the when to go when not to go piece, but the high winds sound like a deal breaker when the swells and wind are good. And is the correct answer consistently true for future trip planning?

You are just looking at the primary swell. Look at the secondary and tertiary swells also



That's going to be a bit of a washing machine, and small winter windows have a way of disappearing. Might be worth a peak but be ready to make a no go decision on the spot without getting wet.

If you're planning to fish inside the Bay, Magic Seaweed's forecast may not (probably doesn't) have anything to do with conditions in the Bay, and you might want to check another online forecast.

If you're not fishing in the Bay itself, check the reports for Charleston because that forecast will be closer to what the ocean will be like.

None of Magic Seaweed's forecast for the area for the next seven days look very good.  In the Bay, you'll be fighting strong winds.  Out of the Bay, NOAA is forecasting swells in the 15 to 30 foot range from 1nm out to 10nm through the next week to ten days, and it's probably not going to settle down to 2 feet near shore.

Others have much more experience in the area than me, but from my experience, you have very little shelter from the wind in or out of the Bay, and it makes little difference which direction it's blowing.

Plus, listen to crash.  Winter windows seldom appear when predicted, if at all, and with all the different directions of the swells and mostly opposing winds, that's puking conditions!
 

That's way too big of an ocean for kayaking (in my opinion).  Sure, the period is long, but that's about all you have going for you in a magic seaweed report like that.  It depends on the size boat and your experience level if you would consider this a "GO" forecast.

Swells will not go from 10' down to 2' with all that wind and multiple fronts coming through.  Crash is right with the multiple tiers of swells. Your actual water conditions will be a superposition of all the wave energies, plus the wind wave!

Look at stormsurf.com that can give you some longer term views of the weather patterns so you can see what's brewing offshore and the direction of those patterns. I've seen magicseaweed be completely wrong on a swell forecast. So I check multiple sources (buoy data, noaa, msw, recent reports from anyone that was fishing and how that correlated to the forecast for that past day) and I always plan for the possibility to not go if the conditions at the time of launch look bad or even just drastically different from what was forecasted.  I'm possibly overly conservative, but I'm alive.

It's going to be a washing machine out there.To put it in a different light we have been surfing Sunset Bay(yes inside the inner bay) now for a week or so and looks like maybe another week of surfing. Besides from the last storm the place is a war zone. Some of the parking lot over looking the beach is damaged real bad and the section to the boat ramp is closed from logs and other debris that got wash up into the lower parking lot plus the boat ramp is a mess with 3 trees blocking it.

That's a good point, Tinker.  I did not consider that Coos Bay literally meant the bay itself, so will watch Charleston instead.  Thanks for all the other input--sounds like the coast took a beating. 

I think crash gave you the best advice: look at all of the swells - primary, secondary, and tertiary (if they're listed).

Also watch the direction of the wind relative to the direction of the swells because an opposing wind can make the face of even small swells quite steep and make for a choppy day.

bb2fish was also spot on by suggesting you check several forecasts/predictions - especially good advice since you're inland and may arrive to find you need to make a NO decision after a longish drive.

Being able to get a mental picture of the conditions based on a forecast may be the hardest part of the learning curve.

Also if the two swells are in the same direction every so often you will get a swell that is the height of both primary and secondary combined, NOT sure if it was said but always have a plan B .... C, D & E if possible that way your not all bummed out and / or make a foolish decision to go even though your guts telling you not to...trust your instincts .... just my $0.02 and I sit and watch the surf for a good 5-10 minutes before I even take the kayak straps off , as well as look up at it regular the whole time I'm rigging. It can change and does in a few minutes. Another thing that might tip you off it's not looking good is if no one else is going out or at PC the dory guys aren't launching.

As the comment by @surf12foot illustrates, it's not only about swell size--swell direction is very important for some locations. For instance, with a NW swell launching in PC or Sunset Bay is quite protected. At PC, I've often launched with a 7' swell...as those swells wrap around the point they diminish to almost nothing at the N end of the launch area; but with a westerly 3-5' swell, the shore break has kept me on the beach more than once.

Also, it's a lot easier to get out through breaking surf gracefully than to return through it, and this time of year, conditions can change quite quickly; I can't remember a winter day when conditions improved between launching and landing.

Are you talking about the surf or the swell?  A 7 foot swell is pretty much a NO GO for a lot of us, but a 7-foot break doesn't necessarily mean the ocean swells are anywhere near that height.

Nonetheless, I, personally, couldn't launch through a 7-foot break, either.  The pucker factor is just too big.  Maybe in a couple of years, but not yet.  That's a crushing weight if you pooch in it; there'd be literally tons of water smushing you down.