Go or no go pacific city tomorrow

Looking at the conditions for tomorrow of pacific city to try to build my confidence on evaluating weather and seeing very conflicting information. The ndbc noaa buoys call for heavy wind with small craft advisory, while the forecast on magic seaweed for cape kiwanda makes it look quite mild, especially in the morning. Anyone with more experience care to enlighten me?

https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/data/Forecasts/FZUS56.

https://magicseaweed.com/Cape-Kiwanda-Surf-Report/560/

In general, NOAA will forecast worst-case-scenario. MSW is probably the most "optimistic" forecast site out there. It's good you're looking at more forecasts than just the MSW one.

Even with MSW's small swell forecast for the morning, it looks like it'd be a choppy rodeo out there with the 3.5-4 ft @ 5 second tertiary swell. Trying to time your return to the beach before that 3.5 @ 16 second primary swell kicks in could make things tricky (long period swells break big on the beach).

If I read those forecasts, I wouldn't bother going. But I live on the coast and can afford to be picky about my ocean days.

one method I used was to look at the Magicseaweed "prediction" then look at the webcams for Pacific City in realtime.  It's not a perfect system to learn how MSW's forecast actually lines up with actual conditions but it helped.

https://www.capekiwandarvresort.com/MOBI/Webcam.html

http://webcam.pacificcity.org/

I probably would have gone out very early, as early as I could today if I did not have other plans. Early for both getting back while the surf was still small, and to beat the surfers to the limited parking at the moment. Now I am eyeballing next Monday or Tuesday (wind forecast depending)

one method I used was to look at the Magicseaweed "prediction" then look at the webcams for Pacific City in realtime.  It's not a perfect system to learn how MSW's forecast actually lines up with actual conditions but it helped.

+1 I did this almost every single day for a year and you can start to really map forecast to reality that way. Also, having been there a few times so you understand the lay of the beach helps, since the webcam isn't exactly 4k HD.

Today was a super easy launch and landing, a little bit of leftover slop outside from the previous days wind.  Remember this time of year you can launch at 5am and usually get several hours of fishing in before the wind cranks

At least for PC the swell angle is most important.  289 degrees or more north and you have a lot of protection and can in launch up to 5-6 foot swells.  1-3 obviously ideal.  Any swell from the SW will really mess things up, especially if there’s sand built up inside the cape.

I’ve seen so many unreliable wind forecasts it’s crazy, sometimes you just have to take a chance.

Today was a super easy launch and landing, a little bit of leftover slop outside from the previous days wind.  Remember this time of year you can launch at 5am and usually get several hours of fishing in before the wind cranks

At least for PC the swell angle is most important.  289 degrees or more north and you have a lot of protection and can in launch up to 5-6 foot swells.  1-3 obviously ideal.  Any swell from the SW will really mess things up, especially if there’s sand built up inside the cape.

I’ve seen so many unreliable wind forecasts it’s crazy, sometimes you just have to take a chance.

Where did you park? Last I heard we can't park on beach or parking lot. Hoping to get out this week if forecast holds.

Parking lot was filled to capacity on Saturday and Sunday when I looked at the Pacific City webcam.  Still seemed to be a barricade of some sort at the ramp.   Cars are parked there right now. http://webcam.pacificcity.org/

+1 for wondering where to park for the time being. I know they just added more signs/dedicated LEO's for enforcing people parking where they are not supposed to. I believe there is some limited roadside parking but would like to know where to look  desperately wanna get back out there

Does anyone have an update on when Pacific City is going to open the beach for "Kayak Launch Vehicles"?  I can see the parking lot is open, but can't see what's down the beach where the Dory guys park.  Hoping to get out there 4th of July before the craziness descends on the beach.  Launch at first light, back in by 10am at the latest.

Cosmo

Does anyone have an update on when Pacific City is going to open the beach for "Kayak Launch Vehicles"?  I can see the parking lot is open, but can't see what's down the beach where the Dory guys park.  Hoping to get out there 4th of July before the craziness descends on the beach.  Launch at first light, back in by 10am at the latest.

Cosmo

Cosmo, I have since learned they opened the beach not just to dory guys, but all boat launching vehicles. This includes us kayakers it is only closed to parking from non boat launching vehicles. There should be someone there manning the combo lock/gate. But if not and you would like the code PM me.

T Coastal, that is a great update.  I will be out there at first light on the 4th, and digging Razor Clams on the 5th in Seaside.

Thanks for the update.